Solomon Islands: China and the West are watching the Pacific election closely

In the Solomon Islands, the night before the election is known as Devil's Night.

Political candidates pay bribes — offering everything from cash to bags of rice and Chinese-made solar panels to secure last-minute votes.

Vote-buying is a common tactic in elections in the Pacific – difficult to stamp out despite strict electoral laws.

But that's not why some of the world's biggest powers are paying such close attention to Wednesday's vote.

This remote island nation has played a key role in influencing China and the US – along with its ally Australia – in the region.

However, back on the ground, voters will focus mainly on their immediate needs. More than 80% of the population of 700,000 live outside the capital Honiara – most without access to basic services such as electricity, medical aid, schools and transport.

Wednesday's election – delayed from last year – will be the first time citizens can vote in the Solomon Islands since it shifted from the west towards Beijing.

As a result, the referendum could be seen as a “referendum” on current leader Manasseh Sogavare's embrace of China, says Edward Cavanaugh, a researcher who traveled the country for his book 'Divided Isles' documenting the return to Beijing.

The Prime Minister is very good at leaning into it [geopolitical competition] “Each of these major and regional powers play off each other to get incredible deals,” he says.

The Solomon Islands, located about 1,600 km (900 mi) north of Australia, is one of the poorest countries in the region due to decades of tribal conflict.

Until 2017, Australia led the peacekeeping mission here.

Two years later, after the mission was withdrawn, Prime Minister Sogavare chose to abandon his country's decades-long diplomatic relationship with Taiwan in favor of Beijing. Then, in 2022, he signed a defense pact with China — the details of which are still not publicly known.

This set off major alarm bells for Australia and other Pacific neighbours. At one point, there was talk that the deal would allow China to establish a naval base in the US-dominated Pacific region – rumors which Mr Sokavar himself dismissed.

Yet if he wins again, the prime minister has only pledged to deepen ties – he sees Beijing as a provider of his country's future prosperity, while also making clear his disdain for traditional allies Australia and the US.

Chinese aid and investment flowed into the country after the deal brought new stadiums, roads and other infrastructure. Mr Sogavare told the UN last year that China was Salomon's main infrastructure partner.

But his political opponents have criticized his rapprochement with China, questioning whether this is the best path for the nation. Some have said China would renegotiate the defense pact if empowered, while others want to work with traditional Western allies such as Australia.

People on about 900 islands will go to the polls between 07:00 and 16:00 local time (23:00 GMT) to vote for national and provincial representatives.

50 MB seats to be filled. After that, negotiations to form a governing coalition take place, with MPs voting among themselves to elect the Prime Minister.

Party lines are not historically consistent and more than 100 candidates are running as independents. Only 20 candidates were women – a long-standing problem.

The two competing coalitions (DCGA and CARE) are fielding enough candidates to win, says Mac Keane, a Pacific analyst at Australia's Lowy Institute foreign policy think tank.

Major Candidates for Prime Minister:

Beyond geopolitics, analysts say it is the most significant election to stabilize democracy in a country with a history of riots and coups.

The memory of recent riots in the capital Honiara still lingers – including in 2021 when protesters tried to burn down the prime minister's house, seething with anger at the corruption of the political class, persistent poverty and the country's turn to China.

This is the country's second election since the withdrawal of the Australian-led Regional Assistance Committee.

Amid long-standing concerns about practices like Devil's Night, the country has election observers to monitor whether votes meet fair and independent standards. The Australian Educators' Election Watch report, in the last 2019 election, Candidates gave money and other things liberally.

“In the Solomon Islands, elections are mainly fought over local issues and commitments. Candidates with deep pockets and wealthy supporters can win better support and buy votes,” says Dr Keane.

But there is also corruption in post-vote negotiations, where “money, ministerial promises and hotel lock-ups are used to win support for ruling coalitions”. According to Dr Keane's election summary Last week.

Some politicians have also accused Beijing of election interference, as some researchers point out The Chinese Embassy presented the prizes Fishing nets, knives, water tanks and solar lights to the key province of Malaita, days before the vote.

Previous research by Australian academics found that China, and before that Taiwan, put dollars into “constituency development funds” for parliamentarians, which are considered slush funds to use effectively.

Dr Keane says the pots have flowed only to MPs who supported Prime Minister Sogavere.